Newmont's O'Brien sees gold at $1600 this year

Newmont CEO, richard O'Brien remains confident on the gold price near term, and also on copper, in comments made at a World Economic Forum meeting in Jakarta

Author: Michael Taylor

JAKARTA (Reuters) -

Newmont Mining Corp (NEM.N), the world's No.2 gold producer, sees prices for the precious metal rising up to $1,600 this year and then above that next year, on growing demand from Asia's burgeoning middle class.

Chief Executive Officer Richard O'Brien also said on Monday that the planned initial public offering (IPO) of the company's Indonesian unit might be delayed to the middle of next year.

"Next year we could maybe get over $1,600 for a while," O'Brien told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of a World Economic Forum Event in Jakarta on Monday.

"Longer term, it's still potential upside, depending on U.S. dollar weakness, and a sustained building of the middle class in both India and China," he added.

India and China, the world's top two gold consumers, together consumed about 1,543 tonnes of gold jewellery, coins and bars in 2010, the World Gold Council says.

Spot gold traded at $1,530.59 an ounce on Monday, near a record-high hit in early May of $1,575.79.

A Reuters poll of analysts in April showed expectations of prices reaching an average of $1,700 an ounce in 2015.

China and India are also major consumers of copper. O'Brien said that unless something happens to the two buyers, copper will be in "a pretty good trading range for the next several years".

"$4-$4.5 range (per pound) is a reasonable place for us to be for the next two years," he said.

Newmont runs the Batu Hijau gold and copper mine in Indonesia's West Nusa Tenggara through its unit PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara. Last month, Newmont Nusa Tenggara's chief executive Martiono Hadianto said the company planned to launch an IPO in the second half of this year.

However, O'Brien said the IPO might be delayed to mid-2012, as the company is waiting for the closure of an expected divestment of a 7 percent stake required under its mining contract.

Indonesia's parliament has clashed with the finance minister in recent weeks over the validity of the central government deal to buy the stake.

"Probably mid next year really is more realistic," O'Brien said.

(Writing by Alfian; Editing by Neil Chatterjee)

Source: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=129188&sn=Detail&pid=102055

Gold prices could rally next week

(Kitco News) – Gold prices could rally next week if Friday’s gains in the U.S. dollar fizzle out, market participants said.

Also, if fears regarding the European-debt situation build, that will increase gold’s safe-haven allure, which might offset dollar strength if the greenback manages to hold firm.
Silver, meanwhile, is likely to stay range-bound as it is does not have the safe-haven allure gold does, plus it could find additional weight from a slowing global economy which would limit the industrial use of the metal.

August gold futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,529.20 an ounce, down 0.81% on the week, while July silver futures settled at $36.327 an ounce, down 0.37% on the week.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 21 responded this week. Of those 21 participants, 14 see prices up, while three see prices down and four see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.

Gold prices fell on Friday as the U.S. dollar was broadly higher. Support for prices came from renewed euro-zone woes.

BNP Paribas said the euro couldcome under pressure in the days ahead, citing heightened concerns over sovereign debt issues. The bank said although the Greek cabinet has signed off of the latest round of planned austerity measures, the Greek opposition party has not and the public continues to protest. They also noted a story in the Wall Street Journal included more details regarding a EUR1 billion covered bond issue backed by Spanish regional debt that failed to sell last week. “With investors already cautious, the potential for contagion is clear,” BNP Paribas said.

The euro-debt story will be front and center in the near-term and will likely drive currency moves, they said. “It may not be long before U.S. debt ceiling concerns knock the euro peripheral debt crisis out of the spotlight, but this is likely to be a late June/July story, not one for the next week or two,” they added.

Commerzbank said despite the euro’s weakness, precious metals prices have still made strong gains. “In gold’s case, its character as a safe haven and store of value is clearly overweighing the prospect of higher interest rates and therefore opportunity costs of holding gold. The price of gold should therefore remain well supported,” they said.

Jimmy Tintle, analyst at Transworld Futures, said part of the dollar’s strength came from currency options expiration and that the dollar was benefitting from short-covering, rather than outright new buying. He said Monday’s action in the dollar will be telling for short-term direction.

“We’ll see whether or not we get any carry through on this rally,” he said.

Charles Nedoss, senior market strategist with Olympus Futures, said in addition to dollar strength, weakness in crude oil and grains pressured gold. “You had the two markets most influenced by inflation come off,” which weighed on gold, he said.

The dollar strength is likely temporary, Nedoss said, and because of that, gold prices could go higher next week. He said late in the day, gold prices moved off their lows even as the dollar’s gains held and that was a bullish sign for the metal.

For next week, the inflation story will return as the U.S. producer and consumer price index reports will be released and that could underpin gold, too, he said.

Tintle said support for gold comes in around $1,520, with $1,500 the next area for support. He said he is neutral on gold’s direction in the short-term, but said if the market can hold and rally, it could try and test $1,570. That’s just shy of the all-time nominal high of around $1,577.

Gold could be range-bound until the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the end of the month, he said. The market is likely waiting to see what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has to say regarding the quantitative easing program, which is slated to end this month. Market participants are waiting to see if he will conduct another stimulus program in light of slowing economic growth.

Ira Epstein, director of the Ira Epstein division of The Linn Group, said it’s not unusual to gold to drift around in June and July and this could be the pattern this year, too, and that could mean steady to weaker prices.

He acknowledges that 2011 is not a typical trading year and the U.S. economy is doing poorly. That said, the main forces driving trading are already in the market.

“I don’t see anything abnormal going on right now that should impact the ‘norm.’ The markets already know about the U.S. hitting its debt ceiling, sovereign debt issues in Europe, war in Libya, Yemen being out of control, Iran, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia splitting on oil output issues and so on. In other words while there can always be an unknown force coming into play, the above plays are known,” Epstein said.

However, he added, after the summer winds down, gold prices could rally sharply, which has been the pattern for the metal since 2001, except for 2008.

“Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance. It is but a tool traders should use in their trading arsenal. (Except) for 2008, gold has displayed a strong seasonal tendency to move higher after the June-July time frame. It’s unimportant to me why it didn’t rally in 2008 since there’s ‘always’ some event that can alter the norm of things,” he said.

Regarding silver, Tintle said there’s little reason for silver to escape its current range between $34 to $38. “I’m pretty neutral toward silver until at least late June/early July,” he said.

Fundamental news is lacking and with thoughts that global growth is slowing, silver is tied down by being considered more for its industrial use than for any safe-haven aspect, he said. He noted that silver has not been able to break above $38, while buying interest surfaces when prices slip to the $34 to $35. “That shows that $35 is a pretty good price for silver,” Tintle said, adding he does not see the metal breaking the lows from the sharp sell-off in May. That figure comes in around $32.30.

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com

Salah satu kelebihan emas fizikal ialah ianya boleh digadaikan. Dengan kata lain emas ini boleh disandarkan sebagai cagaran untuk mendapatkan pinjaman. Pinjaman ini boleh digunakan samada untuk:

1. Membuat pelaburan jangka pendek yang lebih menguntungkan.
2. Sebab sesak nak pakai duit untuk jangkamasa pendek.

Jadi, bagi pembaca yang nak mengetahui cara-cara menggadai emas, saya akan menceritakan pengalaman saya memajak emas di Ar-Rahnu bank Rakyat dan Ar-Rahnu Agro Bank.

Tapi sebelum itu, mari kita lihat sistem pajak gadai yang terdapat di Malaysia.
Sistem pajak gadai di malaysia.

Untuk pengetahuan anda semua, terdapat 2 sistem pajak gadai di Malaysia iaitu:

1. Sistem pajak gadai konvensional
2. Sistem pajak gadai berkonsep Islam (Ar-Rahnu)

Sistem pajak gadai konvensional biasanya dikuasai oleh orang bukan Islam dan tertakluk kepada Akta Pajak Gadai 1972. Pajak gadai konvensional boleh mengenakan faedah/riba keatas pinjaman sehingga 2% sebulan bagi tempoh maksima pajakan 6 bulan. Maksima pinjaman pula ialah RM5000.00

Saya tiada pengalaman memajak emas di pajak gadai konvensional. Lagipun pajak gadai konvensional menggunakan sistem faedah/riba yang jelas bertentangan dengan Islam.

So saya tak recommend lah….
Sistem pajak gadai berkonsep Islam Ar-Rahnu.

Kebaikan sistem pajak gadai Islam berbanding pajak gadai konvensional ialah:

1. Tidak mengenakan faedah/riba sebaliknya menggunakan konsep upah simpan.
2. Wang lebih gadaian dipulangkan jika emas yang tidak ditebus dilelong.
3. Cas perkhidmatan yang rendah
4. Tiada unsur penipuan semasa membuat penimbangan.
5. Tempoh membayar balik yang munasabah
6. Kalau emas hendak dilelong, notis akan diberikan kepada penggadai.

Di Malaysia, diantara bank yang menawarkan perkhidmatan Ar-Rahnu ialah Bank Rakyat dan Agro Bank.

Memandangkan saya pernah memajak emas di kedua-dua bank, maka saya akan tumpukan kepada bank-bank ini.

1. Ar-Rahnu Bank Rakyat:
Maklumat lanjut tentang skim Ar-Rahnu Bank Rakyat boleh baca kat sini:
http://bankrakyat.com.my/web/guest/arrahnu

2. Ar-Rahnu Agro Bank:
Maklumat lanjut mengenai skim Ar-Rahnu Agro Bank boleh dibaca kat sini
http://www.agrobank.com.my/article.cfm?id=711

Pengalaman memajak emas di Bank Rakyat.

Saya ada memajak 6 ketul emas PAMP Suisse 100 gram di Bank Rakyat Melaka.

Untuk pengetahuan anda, terdapat 2 jenis rate pajak iaitu barang kemas dan juga gold bar.

Jika anda hendak pajak gold bar, anda perlu membawa sijil gold bar berkenaan atau resit pembelian gold bar tersebut. Tapi untuk barangan kemas, tak perlu bawa sijil.

Emas PAMP Suisse 100gram yang digadai

Memajak emas di Bank Rakyat sangat mudah.
Dalam 15-20 minit aje dah selesai.
Apa yang perlu dibawa ialah emas dan kad pengenalan.
Kalau ada resit pembelian emas, saya cadangkan anda membawanya. In case pegawai Bank Rakyat minta tengok.
Emas yang biasa digadaikan ialah emas 999 (24K) dan emas 916 (22K)



Pegawai bank akan menguji berat dan ketulenan emas.

Bank Rakyat akan memberi pinjaman 65% daripada nilai keseluruhan emas.

Rate harga emas pula berubah-ubah setiap hari berdasarkan harga emas pasaran.
kalau nak tahu rate, kena telefon atau kunjungi cawangan Ar-Rahnu Bank Rakyat.

Tempoh simpanan ialah 6 bulan. Anda boleh tebus awal kalau nak.
Anda akan dapat diskaun jika menebus awal.

Selepas tempoh 6 bulan, anda boleh terus menyimpan lagi 6 bulan, tapi dengan syarat anda kena jelaskan upah simpan untuk 6 bulan yang terdahulu.
Upah simpan Ar-Rahnu Bank Rakyat

Upah simpan yang dikenakan oleh Bank Rakyat bergantung kepada nilai harga emas yang disimpan ( dipanggil nilai marhum).

Macam kes saya nie, nilai emas (marhum) ialah RM64,500.

Jadi, saya boleh pinjam 65% daripada nilai marhum iaitu bersamaa RM41,900.00

Memandangkan nilai gadaian melebihi RM5000, ia dah masuk kategori Az-Zahab
(Az- Zahab adalah skim lanjutan kepada Ar-Rahnu. Ia menawarkan pembiayaan lebih tinggi dan tempoh bayaran balik lebih lama daripada Skim Pajak Gadai-i Ar-Rahnu. Ar-Rahnu untuk nilai marhum RM5000 ke bawah)

Pengiraan:

Nilai emas yang disimpan = RM64 500.00

Nilai pinjaman yang diberikan = 65% x RM64 500.00
= RM41 925.00 (dibundarkan jadi RM41 900.00)

Upah simpan = 0.75% x RM64 500.00 (nilai marhum)
= RM483.00 sebulan (tapi kena bayar RM485.08)

Jumlah upah simpan 6 bulan = RM485.08 x 6
= RM2910.45

Ini adalah resit pajakan emas di bank Rakyat.

Kebaikan:

1. Proses gadaian mudah dan cepat
2. Boleh pajak sehingga nilai maksimum RM50,000
3. Bank Rakyat boleh keluarkan terus RM50,00 kepada pemajak
4. Upah simpan dibayar semasa nak tebus emas tersebut

Kelemahan:

1. Emas yang ada gambar binatang dan manusia tak diterima. Ini kerana Ar-Rahnu
ialah produk Islam, jadi ia perlu menepati kehendak syarak.
2. Semakin tinggi nilai gadaian, semakin tinggi rate upah simpan

Pengalaman memajak emas di Agro Bank.


Saya ada memajak emas PAMP Suisse 50gram (plastik biru) dan Kijang Emas 1Oz di Agro Bank Melaka.

Ini kerana Agro Bank boleh menerima gold bar yang ada gambar untuk dipajakkan.



Prosesnya pun mudah juga. Dalam 20 minit selesai urusan mengisi borang dan menguji ketulenan emas. Pegawai Agro Bank meminta saya sertakan resit pembelian emas untuk disimpan.

Bagi Agro Bank, anda boleh memohon untuk mendapat 50% atau 60% atau 70% daripada nilai gadaian.

Semakin tinggi nilai gadaian, maka semakin tinggi upah simpan yang dikenakan kepada penggadai.

Bagi kes saya, saya ambil 70%


Ini adalah resit gadaian emas Agro Bank




Kebaikan:

1. Emas yang mempunyai gambar haiwan/orang boleh diterima.
2. Nilai gadaian maksimum ialah RM50,000.
3. Boleh gadai dengan nilai 50%, 60% atau 70% dari nilai emas.
4. Upah simpan emas dibayar sewaktu nak tebus emas berkenaan.
5. Proses gadaian yang mudah dan cepat.

Kelemahan:

1. Sehari Agro Bank boleh keluarkan RM10,000 sahaja. Kalau anda nak dapat 50,000
kena berulang-alik ke Agro Bank 5 hari berturut-turut lah..
2. Semakin tinggi nilai gadaian, semakin tinggi upah simpan.

Kesimpulan:
Menyimpan emas memang menguntungkan. Ini kerana nilai emas akan meningkat dalam jangkamasa panjang. Jadi apabila nilainya meningkat, maka nilai gadaian juga akan meningkat. Justeru, jika anda memerlukan wang dengan kadar segera, emas anda boleh digadaikan dengan mudah.

Apa tunggu lagi.. mulakan simpanan emas anda sekarang! untuk long term memang berbaloi :)
Lain-lain fakta:

Institusi lain yang menawarkan perkhidmatan Ar-Rahnu (setahu saya):

* Permodalan Kelantan Berhad:
http://www.pkb.net.my/arrahn
* Koperasi Jurukur Tanah Berlesen Berhad (KOJUTA)
http://www.kojuta.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=25&Itemid=52
* EONCAP Islamic Bank
http://www.eoncap-islamicbank.com.my/financing/financing_ar_rahnu.asp
* Koperasi Pendidikan Islam Malaysia Berhad (UKHWAH)
http://www.ukhwah.com.my/core/rahnu/139.html

What happens to gold if the dollar collapses

What happens to gold if the dollar collapses as the U.N. suggests?

Now the U.N. warns of dollar collapse. If it happens how ill it materialise and what would it mean for the price of gold?

Author: Julian Phillips

BENONI -

Last week the U.N. warned of a possible collapse of the US dollar - if its value against other currencies continues to decline. The U.N. mid-year review of the world economy did not get extensive coverage. Their economic division said that a crisis of confidence in the dollar, stemming from the falling value of foreign dollar holdings, would imperil the global financial system. This trend had recently been driven by interest rate differentials between the U.S. and other major economies and growing concern about the sustainability of the U.S. public debt, half of which is held by foreigners including the Chinese government.

There is a real sense of both desperation and denial about the debt crisis and the global nature of the debt crisis. On Friday Moody's threatened the U.S. with a downgrade if the ‘ceiling' is not raised by mid-July. Bad labor figures made QE 3 more of a possibility and we see a continued slowdown in the developed world economies.

The solution of creating more public debt to cure a private debt crisis will be seen as a blunder and will likely lead to greater financial and economic woes. Part of the solution will be to utilize gold in the monetary system in hopes that it will support and shore-up the monetary system. What else is there that is trusted globally?

Is the U.N. economic division incompetent? Are their opinions of little consequence?

The statement they made is huge. A collapse of the US dollar! Maybe the news is too much for the media and the world to cope? Maybe we're in denial. "So far, so good!" said the man who fell off the 50-storey building, as he passed the 12th floor...

Importance of the US Dollar

The US dollar replaced gold as the fulcrum of the global money systems of the world in 1971 at a time when its value was falling alongside the British pound. It was accepted back then because it was tied to the oil price. This made the US dollar indispensable. If you used oil you needed the dollar to pay for it. You had to convert every other currency to get oil. Everyone sold it in the US dollar.

Moreover, the U.S. persuaded Europe (at the time led by President Charles de Gaulle) to stop converting their dollars into gold and accept them as vital currency. The link to oil forced their hand. The dollar had no other virtues at the time, and so that ingredient changed their thinking.

We had thought many times that the oil producers themselves would have broken the link as the dollar's reputation floundered. But they all realized that their country's power was, in a way, permitted by the kind permission of the U.S. -as we saw in Kuwait, then in Iraq and no doubt, by extension in Libya. The U.S. guarantee of security has made them putty in U.S. hands.

Even O.P.E.C. realizes that things are changing and their oil is all they have. Middle Eastern oil producers discussed setting up a Persian Gulf currency the year before last, but nothing has come of it. There will most likely be no Gulf currency unless monetary chaos ensues. If the dollar collapses, their incomes will collapse with it, and in turn their power base. They mostly likely have a plan B. Until then they will keep oil prices in the US dollar and raise them as the dollar falls.

Russia is another kettle of fish. They are not part of O.P.E.C. and will accept the Yuan in payment of their oil as well as the dollar. Iran is fearful, but independent of the U.S. and has discarded all their dollar reserves as well as priced their oil in Euros. But the rest of O.P.E.C. will keep their oil priced in the dollar.

Since the oil price fell back to $35 in the credit crunch, they have demonstrated that they can manage the oil price. For the last year we've seen the price of oil more than compensate for the fall in the US dollar. Right now it is holding the $100 level up from $80 last year, countering the fall in the dollar against hard currencies. As a result the oil price has been steady in the euro.

Now that the U.S. consumer (and the U.S. recovery) is faltering we hear loud calls for increased oil supplies. This would drop the oil price, but be unacceptable to O.P.E.C. The U.S. government will accept higher oil prices because of the importance of the $:oil link.



It looked as though the world was stuck with the US dollar until two new elements emerged to change the picture...



Mismanagement of the US Dollar

Apart from U.S. gold reserves, there are only a small amount of currencies to protect the U.S. if the dollar were to become unacceptable for international payment. U.S. foreign exchange reserves are structured so that the dollar is the only global reserve currency. It's rather like the use of English in the world. Why learn another language when English is the globally-accepted language? To date foreigners have had to accept the dollars because there is no viable alternative. If the States needs more they print more.

Because of its connection with oil, the dollar will be used until other nations can pay oil producers in other currencies, and if that occurs then usage of the dollar will shrink considerably. Furthermore, The U.S. balance of payments developed this perpetual trade deficit, a form of tribute exacted from the rest of the world. Over the last forty to fifty years, this has worked well as developing countries use the dollar to promote growth. It would work even better if the management of the dollar were handled with its global reserve status in mind and not the U.S. economic situation as the priority. Who cares the world boomed over the last half century?

Once dollar issuance increased to fund imports -as well as to counter the credit crunch-global economic interests were subject to the health and integrity of the U.S. economy. From the day the euro was first issued in 1999 until now we have seen a 46% decline in the value of the dollar against the euro alone. The rest of the world cannot afford to allow the U.S. to continue to take advantage of the world. Still worse, the government deficit in the U.S. has ensured that they are getting increasingly reliant on the reinvestment of foreign (mainly Asian and oil-producing nations) surpluses into the U.S. for its solvency.

Now the U.S. is facing a downturn and is heavily extended on the credit front. Nations are closer to making changes to the currency hierarchy in hopes they can overcome a potential dollar collapse. There is a point when actions against the dollar will be precipitous. The poor, Friday labor report has us watching the dollar fall and points to levels beyond €1: $1.50.

Holders of dollars have to act in the interests of retaining the value of their reserves. This can mean supporting the dollar on foreign exchanges or it can mean selling the dollars for assets, resources and other foreign currencies. At some point, it will mean not accepting the dollar in payment of foreign goods. It is only a matter of time for the dollar to be removed from its pole position, where it is already causing so much volatility and damage to profits.

The biggest potential damage that could blindside the dollar is a switch by Asian nations from pricing their products in the U.S. dollar to the Yuan or other currencies. This is so they stop accumulating dollars; however, they still need it for as long as oil is being sold in the dollar.

This position can only be changed if oil producers (other than O.P.E.C.) accept currencies other than the dollar. These changes are needed now, but they will not come until the damage to the dollar's value can be ‘contained' by the surplus holders. China is already using Roubles and the Yuan to pay Russia for oil and the day may not be far off when Europe does the same. If O.P.E.C. felt the pain of a dollar collapse (or even excessive inflation inside the U.S.) it might accept other currencies from buyers (U.S. excluded). O.P.E.C. cannot continue raising the dollar oil price because of the outcry it would cause in the U.S.

THE EMERGENCE OF ASIA

U.S. global wealth and power is on the decline. China is the world's second largest global economy. If the current rate of development is sustained it is only a matter of time before China becomes the world's largest -before the Yuan becomes the world's reserve currency. It is only a matter of time before nations will need Yuan in their reserves to pay for Chinese imports.

Part of the emergence of Asia is the replacement of the dollar in global trade. The only dollars reserved are to pay for U.S. goods and oil. When other currencies are used in place of the dollar, the purchasing power of the US dollar will decline. This is happening fast!

There is nothing to convince us that the will stop declining. From now until then, the gold price will move in the opposite direction.



Julian Phillips is a long time specialist analyst of the gold and silver markets and is the principal contributor to the Gold Forecaster - www.goldforecaster.com - and Silver Forecaster- www.silverforecaster.com - websites and newsletters

Source: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page103855?oid=128795&sn=Detail&pid=102055

3 Things to Learn from the Silver Selloff

3 Things to Learn from the Silver Selloff - SilverSeek PDF Print E-mail

By: Dr. Jeffrey Lewis

Silver’s correction from nearly-$50 to $34 was wild; it was the kind of market movement that hardly allowed investors to digest what was coming as it happened. A month after wild market activity, investors who have taken the time to uncover what happened in the market may have realized three key elements of the selloff.



The three elements driving silver market activity:



1. Dynamic relationship with gold – While silver hasn’t been tied to gold in any “official” capacity for decades, and centuries in some parts of the world, gold and silver are still tied together unofficially by market actors. In the recent silver correction, silver dropped by 33%, gold was virtually unchanged, having lost only 7% from top to bottom. The gold to silver ratio now stands at a reasonable 40:1. Of course, there is a very obvious case for long-term decoupling as silver gains from evolving industrial demand, but in the short-term, the irrationality of the markets weighs as heavily as anything else.

2. Financialized silver still important – Leading up to the silver correction were several key events. First, the build-up in investment interest in financialized silver, that which is bought and sold on markets and in intangible form, combined with the a mini-panic short covering just before the drop. Prices at your local coin shop are still set by the spot price, which is engineered first by the Comex, and secondly by the major institutional investors who bully prices for most financial products.

3. Miners matter – Wall Street, which is largely a game of who is smarter than who, is still on the hunt for cash flow, not protection of wealth. In the silver correction, traders were swapping bullion—at least supposed future delivery of bullion—for shares in silver miners, which produce cash, not silver. The short-silver, long-miners trade helped to balance out relatively low valuations for miners, which are to Wall Street future cash flows from silver production, not silver.



In realizing these three realities of the silver market, investors should be patient enough to know that nowhere in the above three lessons to be learned is that silver is a bad investment. Instead, silver makes an excellent investment for those who have the liquidity to ride out the market’s irrationality.



The short-term is still dominated by cash because even today, cash is still part of everyday life. Silver is not yet accepted at your local convenience store, and Wall Street still values the modern, non-backed dollar more than it values the element which has historically given it value.



Investors should use this opportunity to make long-term entry points out of short-term corrections. The bull run in silver will not be over until budgets are balanced, interest rates rise, and industrial manufacturers find a replacement for what is one of the most useful elements known to man. The small quantities of silver, which make it so attractive in money and industry, are unfortunately working against the recent market entrant. However, in the long-term, all markets find efficiency and normalcy—and that means significantly higher values for silver bullion.



Source: http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1306994580.php

Gold prices may hit $1,800 by year-end

Gold prices will continue to rise in the foreseeable future and may hit $1,800 an ounce by the end of this year due to its strong demand in India, China and other emerging markets, a top official of Pure Gold Jewellers said.

Pure Gold Jewellers chairman and founder Firoz G. Merchant said investors’ appetite for the yellow metal is on the rise due to its better rate of investment returns in the past couple of years.

He said high oil prices, economic instability in major global economies and a fear of a double-dip recession in Europe and the United States also played a key role in attracting investment in gold that keep its outlook bright in the near future.

‘Asia will be engine of growth in days to come and Middle East countries will lead the recovery in global economies as the higher crude prices will help the regional governments to spend the surplus funds on development and infrastructure projects,’ Merchant told Khaleej Times in an interview.

Pure Gold Jewellers, established in 1989, is one of the fastest-growing jewellery houses in the UAE and GCC countries. The group, which counts a jewellery and accessories line in its portfolio, operates 52 outlets in the UAE and has massive expansion plans in GCC and India.

‘Major European countries are facing difficulties to overcome inflation and debt crisis, Japan is hit by a natural disaster and the United States is also not yet come out of the recession,’ he said, adding that tougher days are still ahead for the US and other Western countries.

He said oil prices maintained an upward trend but its volatile trade has shaken investors’ trust in black gold, leaving no other option for them to invest in the yellow metal.

‘I believe oil prices are going to be out of control and will be stable at $200 a barrel during the next couple of years.’

By late Friday on London’s Intercontinental Exchange, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in July rose to $115.12 a barrel from $114.67 the previous week. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate or light sweet crude for July eased to $99.75 a barrel from $100.35.

‘Amid considering all these situations, investors consider investment in gold a safe bet with a confidence of getting higher profit returns,’ Merchant said. He said gold prices would continue to maintain an upward trend due to higher demand in India, China and emerging markets.

‘Gold prices will be ranging between $1,700 to $1,800 an ounce by the end of this year,’ he said, adding that the prices may be touching the $3,000 mark in three to five years due to strong demand and investors’ faith in the yellow metal.

Gold rose to $1,540 an ounce by late Friday on the London Bullion Market Gold. The metal enjoyed solid gains in recent times garnering support from its status as a safe haven in uncertain economic outlook in major economies of the world.
Business unusual

Merchant said higher gold prices are affecting jewellery demand in the region and encouraging people to invest in diamond jewellery. ‘Gold sales have dropped by an average of 20 per cent while diamond sales have increased by an average of 30 per cent in the first five months of this year,’ Merchant said.

He said the bright outlook for gold boosts demand for diamond jewellery.’ Merchant added that diamond prices are also likely to increase by 25 per cent in 2011. ‘Diamond sales are on the rise as customers are diversifying from gold into diamonds due to its rising prices,’ Merchant said.

In reply to another question about Pure Gold’s business growth in second half, Merchant said, ‘We are expecting better sales and growth in the coming months, as tourism will increase and many holiday seasons are upcoming as well.’



About the expectations from the forthcoming Dubai Summer Surprises, or DSS, he said: ‘We believe it’s too early to say, as we are waiting to hear what the Government of Dubai has planned for the upcoming DSS, only then we will be able to make our predictions.’

TEKNIK PELABURAN EMAS

TEKNIK PELABURAN EMAS – BELI PADA HARGA MURAH DAN JUAL PADA HARGA MAHAL

1. Apabila berbicara mengenai pelaburan, terdapat pelbagai bidang pelaburan seperti pelaburan dalam bidang hartanah, amanah saham, komuditi, insuran, simpanan, stocks, dan lain-lain lagi.

2. Bentuk pelaburan di atas boleh dibahagikan lagi ke sub-sub bidang. Contohnya, pelaburan dalam bidang saham amanaha boleh dibahagikan kepada dana aggressive growth , dana sektor, dana indeks dan lain-lain lagi. Bidang hartanah boleh dibahagikan kepada rumah sewa, hotel, pejabat komersial dan lain-lain lagi.

3. Seperti juga bidang-bidang pelaburan, terdapat juga teknik-teknik yang berbeza bagi mengimplimentasikan pelaburan tersebut.

4. Antara teknik/prosidur pelaburan adalah seperti beli & jual, jual & beli, pemudaratan kos, simpanan dan lain-lain lagi.

5. Seseorang yang hendak membuat pelaburan hendaklah memilih teknik yang sesuai dengan matlamat pelaburan tersebut. Matlamat itu merangkumi keuntungan yang hendak dijana dan tempoh masa samada untuk jangkamasa yang pendek, sederhana atau panjang.

6. Teknik asas yang paling senang ialah beli & jual. Beli pada harga murah dah jual pada harga mahal.

7. Oleh kerana blog ini mengfokuskan kepada emas, contoh di bawah adalah mengenai pelaburan Syiling Kijang Emas menggunakan teknik beli pada harga murah dan jual pada harga mahal.

Simulasi Teknik Beli Pada Harga Murah dan Jual Pada harga Mahal.

1. Katakan pada bulan Jun 2008 anda membeli 4 keping Syiling Emas Kijang (1 troy ounce) pada harga jual RM3,017 sekeping. Jadi jumlah pelaburan anda adalah 4 X RM3,017 = RM12,062.



2. Anda perlu menunggu masa yang sesuai untuk menjual kembali Syiling Emas Kijang tersebut untuk mendapat keuntungan.

3. Daripada gambarajah di atas, perbezaan harga jual dan harga beli adalah 3.2%. Maka untuk mendapat semula modal, kenaikan harga mestilah sebanyak 3.2% juga.

4. Selepas setahun berlalu, pada Jun 2009 harga beli sekeping Syiling Emas Kijang adalah seperti berikut :



5. Anda akan menjual emas anda pada harga beli iaitu RM3,488 sekeping.

6. Berapa keuntungan anda?

* Harga beli sekeping RM3,017
* Harga jual sekeping RM3,488
* Keuntungan sekeping (harga beli – harga jual) = RM471.00
* Kuantiti Syiling Emas Kijang yang anda miliki = 4 keping
* Jumlah keuntungan : 4 keping X RM471.00 = RM1,884

7. Dalam masa setahun, anda boleh mendapat keuntungan sebanyak RM1,884.00 dengan modal yang bernilai RM12,062 sahaja. Ini bersamaan 15.6% keuntungan dalam masa setahun.

Sumber : Wikipidia

Membuat keuntungan dengan emas fizikal (menggunakan teknik manipulasi Ar-Rahnu)

Membuat keuntungan dengan emas fizikal (menggunakan teknik manipulasi Ar-Rahnu)
Baiklah, sekarang saya ingin berkongsi teknik menjana keuntungan dengan menggunakan emas fizikal dan kemudahan Ar-Rahnu.
Sesiapa yang dah beli emas fizikal, tahniah! teknik ini untuk anda.

Terdapat 2 teknik manipulasi pajak gadai Ar-Rahnu.

Teknik 1: Pajak emas fizikal dan masukkan kedalam akaun GIA/GSPA.
Teknik 2: Pajak emas dan beli lagi emas fizikal.

TEKNIK 1: PAJAK EMAS FIZIKAL DAN MASUK GIA/GSPA

1. Ketika harga emas rendah, pajakkan emas anda di Ar-Rahnu. Hasil duit pajakan
semuanya digunakan untuk membeli emas GIA Public Bank atau Maybank GSPA.

2. Bila harga emas naik, anda jual emas GIA dan tebus balik emas di Ar-Rahnu

p/s: Kelemahan teknik ini ialah anda cuma boleh pajakkan emas anda sekali sahaja. Bila hasil pajakan tersebut anda masukkan kedalam GIA/GSPA maka anda tidak boleh memajak lagi. Anda cuma boleh tunggu harga emas naik. Jika anda hendak untung lebih anda kena buat teknik 2 (diterangkan di bawah)

TEKNIK 2 : PAJAK EMAS DAN BELI LAGI EMAS FIZIKAL.

Teknik ini lagi best :)

1. Ketika harga emas rendah, pajakkan emas anda di Ar-Rahnu.
Beli lagi emas fizikal dengan hasil pajakan tersebut tersebut, contohnya
Kijang Emas, UOB atau jongkong emas Public Gold (emas yang spreadnya kecil)

2. Pajak semula emas fizikal tersebut di Ar-Rahnu. Gunakan hasil pajakan kali
kedua tersebut untuk membeli lagi emas fizikal.
Anda boleh ulang-ulang proses ini sehingga 2-3 kali (kalau modal besar seperti
RM100,000, maka anda boleh ulangi proses pajak ini banyak kali)

3. Di hujung proses ini, pastikan anda ada emas fizikal ditangan. Apabila harga emas
naik, anda jual emas fizikal di tangan anda. Kemudian hasil jualan itu anda tebus
emas di dalam Ar-Rahnu.
Ulangi proses ini sehingga kesemua emas anda habis ditebus.

4. Di akhir proses, anda akan mendapat semula emas anda yang pertama.
Anda akan mendapat untung kerana jualan emas hasil gadaian pada harga tinggi
boleh menampung upah simpan di Ar-Rahnu bagi emas-emas yang digadaikan.


Gambar: Ilustrasi teknik pajak dan beli emas fizikal.

Sumber : Jutawan Emas